人民币持续创新高，什么原因？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has shown a strong upward trend against the US dollar following the Spring Festival holiday, with significant appreciation observed in both onshore and offshore markets [3][10]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - On February 26, the offshore RMB reached a peak of 6.83605 against the US dollar, appreciating over 0.25% from the previous trading day [3][10]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both broke the 6.87 mark, marking the highest level since April 2023, with the onshore midpoint rate reported at 6.9231, an increase of 93 basis points [5][12]. - Since the end of December 2025, the RMB has remained below the 7.0 threshold against the dollar [13]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recovery of China-US trade relations since November 2025 and an overall improvement in the external environment are key factors contributing to the RMB's strength [5][12]. - A weaker US dollar has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [5][12]. - Recent data shows significant foreign exchange settlement surpluses, with bank customer settlement surpluses reaching $99.93 billion and $88.76 billion in December 2025 and January 2026, respectively, ranking first and third historically [5][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate in the short term, supported by a stable external environment and strong export growth in the first quarter [6][13]. - The RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by three main factors: the US dollar's performance, changes in China's external trade environment, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies [6][13]. - Despite recent strong performance, there are stabilizing factors for the RMB, including a potential return to a more balanced exchange rate and seasonal fluctuations in settlement demand [14].