IMF：美国应调整经济政策

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests an alternative policy mix for the U.S. that can achieve the goals of the Trump administration while avoiding negative spillover effects [1][2]. Economic Assessment - The IMF's report emphasizes the macroeconomic impact of policy changes expected in 2025 on the U.S., its trading partners, and the global economy [1][7]. - The alternative approach proposed includes replacing tariffs with destination-based consumption taxes and shifting to a skills-based immigration system [2][8]. Trade and Inflation - The IMF expresses concern over the scale of the U.S. trade and current account deficits, noting that tariffs have negative supply effects that exacerbate goods inflation and hinder stronger growth [2][8]. - It is projected that while raising tariffs may slightly reduce the U.S. trade deficit in the short term, by early 2026, the personal consumption expenditure price index will increase by approximately 0.5 percentage points, and output levels will decline [2][8]. Monetary Policy - The IMF indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to ease monetary policy in 2025 is appropriate, given the slowdown in job growth and the lack of broader price pressure from tariffs [2][8]. - The baseline forecast predicts that by the end of 2026, the federal funds rate will reach 3.25%-3.50%, facilitating a return to full employment and a 2% inflation rate by early 2027 [3][9]. Federal Reserve Independence - The report underscores the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence amid political pressures, emphasizing that its policy credibility is a valuable asset that should be carefully protected [4][10]. Fiscal Policy - The IMF calls for a clear, proactive consolidation plan, warning that under current policies, the general government deficit will remain at 7%-8% of GDP, with debt projected to rise to 140% of GDP by 2031 [5][11]. - Overall, the IMF expects the U.S. economy to rebound in 2026, with a healthy year-on-year growth rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter, continuing at a similar pace into 2027 [5][11]. Employment Outlook - The IMF also anticipates a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to around 4% [6][11].