2026年中国手机市场迎来历史性价格调整

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market will experience unprecedented price increases starting March 2026, marking the first time in history that all brands and models will raise prices simultaneously [1][5] - Counterpoint Research predicts that the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones in China will rise by 15%-25% compared to 2025, with flagship models potentially increasing by over 30% [2][4] - The primary driver of this price surge is the significant increase in memory costs due to supply chain pressures, particularly from the demand for AI servers [3][5] Price Increase Dynamics - Starting in March 2026, new smartphone models will see price increases of at least 1,000 yuan, while high-end flagship models may rise by 2,000-3,000 yuan [1][2] - The price adjustments will not be limited to new releases; existing models are also expected to undergo multiple price hikes throughout the year [1][6] - The average price increase for smartphones in China is projected to exceed the global average of 6.9% [2] Cost Pressures - The cost of memory chips has surged dramatically, with prices for 1TB flash memory rising from over 200 yuan in 2025 to nearly 600 yuan, and DRAM prices increasing by 80%-95% [4] - The smartphone storage chip procurement costs have risen by over 80% compared to the previous year, contributing to higher manufacturing costs [4][5] - The volatility in memory prices has led to a situation where price adjustments may occur multiple times within a month, further complicating the market dynamics [4] Market Implications - The anticipated price increases may alter consumer purchasing behavior, with mid-range devices seeing smaller price hikes compared to high-end models, potentially leading consumers to delay upgrades [6] - The pressure on low-end products may force manufacturers to reduce their product lines and shipment volumes [6] - The competitive landscape is further complicated by strategies such as Huawei's reverse price cuts, which may impact other flagship Android models [6]