智通财经网·2026-02-26 06:38Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the global lithium demand is expected to reach approximately 2 million tons of LCE by 2026, driven by both power batteries and energy storage batteries. The recent reduction in export tax for domestic lithium batteries may lead to a surge in exports, tightening the supply-demand dynamics in the lithium industry [1][3]. Supply - Lithium price rebound is stimulating supply, but short-term increments are limited. In Australia, stable production from existing lithium projects is expected, but the recovery of suspended projects will take at least a quarter. In South America, new projects are progressing slower than anticipated, and there are discussions among Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile to form a "Lithium OPEC" to enhance their influence on global lithium pricing and supply chains. Zimbabwe has tightened its lithium export policies, which may impact supply in the short term [1][2]. Domestic Supply - Domestic lithium spodumene production has not yet reached large-scale output. The supply disruptions from domestic lithium mica mines remain unresolved. By mid-2025, mining licenses for "ceramic clay" will need to be changed to "lithium mine" licenses due to new regulations. The timing for resuming production at various projects remains uncertain, and there may be temporary shutdowns during this transition [2]. Demand - Domestic demand for power batteries is expected to surge, with energy storage becoming a significant marginal variable for lithium salt demand. Global lithium demand is projected to reach around 2 million tons of LCE by 2026, with energy storage battery shipments expected to reach approximately 900 GWh, a year-on-year growth of nearly 50%. Power battery demand is anticipated to recover rapidly starting in March, with an expected annual growth of around 20%. The reduction in export tax for lithium batteries may lead to preemptive demand, tightening the supply-demand balance in the lithium industry [3]. Balance Sheet - The global lithium supply and demand are expected to be balanced at around 2 million tons of LCE by 2026. If demand exceeds expectations, there could be a significant shortfall in the lithium industry. The supply of global lithium resources is expected to be low initially and high later, while lithium demand exhibits clear seasonal variations, which may lead to rapid price increases. Following several months of destocking, domestic lithium salt inventory cycles are currently less than one month, highlighting the intensifying inventory issues [4]. Related Companies - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Salt Lake Industry, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, Dazhong Mining, and Guocheng Mining [4].