“AI 2028危机”，究竟有多少已然发生

Group 1 - The capital market is experiencing a unique atmosphere as it anticipates structural changes related to AI, with concerns about a potential macroeconomic crisis driven by self-reinforcing AI capabilities [1][3] - Citrini's memo outlines a recursive chain of events leading to systemic risks, including job losses in white-collar sectors, a decline in consumer spending, and rising default rates in private credit and mortgages [3][4] - The narrative that "software is just the beginning" is gaining traction, as recent advancements by Anthropic suggest that high-value knowledge work may soon be systematically replaced by AI [3][4] Group 2 - Anthropic's Claude Code is challenging the long-term value of legacy IT services, as its capabilities extend beyond programming to various vertical industries, raising concerns about the future of SaaS companies [4][5] - The emergence of AI agents capable of direct transactions marks a shift from traditional e-commerce to "AI commerce," potentially disrupting existing business models reliant on intermediaries [8][9] - The job market is facing turbulence, with executives predicting a decrease in employment despite expectations of productivity gains from AI, highlighting a disconnect between employee and executive outlooks [11][14]