欧洲复兴开发银行称 特朗普关税风波尚未影响新兴经济体增长

Core Viewpoint - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) indicates that U.S. tariffs have led to a realignment of trade routes, but the impact on trade has not been as severe as anticipated, resulting in higher-than-expected economic growth for some developing economies [1][4]. Economic Growth - The EBRD reports that the economic growth rate for the 40 countries it covers has reached 3.4%, surpassing previous forecasts [1][4]. - The bank's chief economist, Beata Javorcik, expresses a more optimistic economic outlook compared to last autumn, predicting better economic performance for this year and next [1][4]. - The EBRD projects economic growth rates of 3.6% for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027, both up by 0.2 percentage points from last year's forecasts [1][4]. Trade Dynamics - Some countries covered by the EBRD have even seen growth in exports to the U.S., particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, as these nations gradually replace China's share of exports to the U.S. [1][4]. - Countries like Hungary, Czech Republic, and Poland are exporting AI-related products such as servers, processors, and computing systems, benefiting from this shift in trade dynamics [1][4]. Tariff Impact and Uncertainty - Javorcik warns that the full impact of tariffs remains unclear, as most tracked trade goods had already arrived in the U.S. before the "liberation day" tariffs take effect in April 2025 [2][5]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's initial tariffs were imposed beyond authority adds to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies [2][5]. Public Investment - Javorcik emphasizes the importance of public investment in driving economic growth, especially in the face of global uncertainty and potential suppression of private investment [3][5]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and increased defense spending may divert funds from other critical areas, impacting overall economic priorities [2][5].