股市暴跌54%、滞胀来袭？美联储模拟AI泡沫破裂极端情景

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's 2026 severe adverse scenario predicts a significant economic recession triggered by a sudden decline in risk appetite, leading to a sharp drop in risk asset prices and a spike in market volatility [1][2]. Adverse Scenario Summary - The severe adverse scenario outlines a global recession with a projected stock market decline of approximately 54% and a peak unemployment rate of 10% by Q3 2027 [1][6]. - The scenario anticipates a widening corporate bond spread to 5.7 percentage points and a significant drop in real estate prices, with nominal home prices falling by 29% and commercial real estate prices by 40% [1][6]. - The economic turmoil is expected to suppress consumer demand and lead to substantial cuts in employment and investment, resulting in a slow recovery of economic and asset prices [1]. Baseline Scenario Summary - The Federal Reserve's baseline scenario for 2026-2029 envisions moderate economic growth, stable unemployment rates, and gradually declining inflation, referred to as the "Goldilocks" scenario [3][5]. - Key projections include a decrease in the 3-month Treasury yield from 4.0% at the end of 2025 to 3.1% by the end of 2029, and a gradual decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.9% [4][5]. - The stock market is expected to rise by an average of 4.3% annually until 2029, with nominal home prices initially declining before gradually increasing [5]. Global Economic Context - The severe adverse scenario is characterized by commodity-driven stagflation, with rising inflation expectations and a strengthening dollar against major currencies [8]. - The potential triggers for the adverse scenario include a bursting AI bubble and geopolitical tensions, such as a possible conflict involving Iran, which could lead to increased oil prices and a flight to safety in gold [9][10].