穆迪发布私募信贷展望：随着互联性增强，风险将上升

Core Insights - Moody's projects that the assets under management (AUM) in private credit will exceed $2 trillion by 2026 and approach $4 trillion by 2030, indicating sustained momentum in the sector [2] - The focus of investment is shifting from traditional corporate loans to asset-backed financing (ABF), with growth momentum expected to strengthen in Europe, the Middle East, Africa (EMEA), and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) regions [2] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and leveraged buyout (LBO) activities are anticipated to increase, intensifying competition among lenders and creating more financing opportunities [2] Group 1 - ABF is expected to lead growth as collaboration models and origination activities accelerate, with alternative asset managers seeking to fund a more diverse range of new asset pools, particularly in consumer loans and data infrastructure credit [2] - New partnerships are creating origination opportunities, and alternative asset management firms will continue to expand their participation, especially in areas where banks face regulatory constraints [2] Group 2 - The influence of private credit in the securitization product space is growing, particularly in high-yield sectors that can compensate for asset risks, especially amid narrowing spreads across different asset classes [2] - Financial innovation tools such as structured credit, rated fund structures, net asset value (NAV) loans, and payment-in-kind (PIK) loans are increasingly relied upon to meet alternative liquidity financing needs [3] - The adoption of evergreen funds is reshaping distribution channels for managers, indicating a shift in how private credit is accessed [3] Group 3 - Regulatory frameworks will remain limited, but there will be an increased focus on transparency as global regulators support the role of private credit in meeting capital demands while exercising caution [3] - The interconnectedness between private credit funds and traditional financial institutions is deepening, which may exacerbate risk contagion during economic downturns [3] - Increased participation of retail investors in private credit may lead to heightened volatility in the market [3]