【财经分析】大宗商品“轮动”序幕拉开？黄金之后，原油面临一场大考

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of international oil prices during the Spring Festival holiday due to the US-Iran conflict, while also highlighting the prevailing bearish sentiment towards oil prices once geopolitical tensions subside, despite a generally optimistic outlook for commodities in 2026 [2] Geopolitical Tensions - The Middle East situation remains tense, with reports of US military deployments, including F-22 fighter jets and the USS Ford aircraft carrier, indicating a potential escalation in military presence in the region [3][4] Military Action Analysis - Analysts from the Atlantic Council outline three potential US military strategies against Iran: limited strikes targeting military and security forces, long-term weakening of Iran's military capabilities, and regime change through direct attacks on leadership [5][6][7] Market Reactions and Predictions - Short-term oil price movements are heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, with potential supply disruptions from conflict in the Strait of Hormuz being a significant concern. Analysts suggest that if conflict escalates, oil prices could surge, while a de-escalation could lead to a rapid decline in prices [8][9] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite short-term support for oil prices from geopolitical tensions, many institutions predict a medium-term oversupply in the global oil market, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting oversupply of 3.05 million barrels per day and 3.73 million barrels per day for 2026, respectively [9][10] Historical Context and Future Trends - Historical trends indicate that oil prices are influenced by multiple factors beyond supply and demand. Analysts expect a rotation in commodity strength leading up to 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting various sectors, including energy and agriculture [10][11] Current Market Conditions - Current market conditions show low US oil inventories and high refinery utilization rates, which provide some support for oil prices despite a generally oversupplied market. Analysts warn that geopolitical events could amplify upward price movements [11]