中国外汇 | 谢亚轩：也谈“存款搬家”

Core Viewpoint - The movement of deposits, referred to as "moving house," is a choice made by the resident sector based on a comprehensive consideration of the risk, return, and liquidity of various financial assets [1][6]. Group 1: Deposit Movement and Financial Asset Allocation - A significant amount of resident wealth, formed through bank time deposits, will mature in 2026, leading to potential "moving house" of deposits to purchase stocks, bonds, funds, and insurance due to low deposit rates and an active capital market [2][7]. - The financial assets of the Chinese resident sector include cash and deposits (50.2%), bonds (8.8%), stocks and equity (19.5%), securities investment funds (11.7%), and insurance (9.8%) as of the end of 2022 [2][7]. - The choice of whether to "move" deposits is fundamentally about whether to continue holding deposits or to switch to other major financial assets like bonds and insurance [2][7]. Group 2: International Comparisons and Trends - Research has often referenced international experiences, suggesting that by 2024, the U.S. financial asset structure will show a significant reduction in bank deposits, with a notable increase in stocks and investment funds [3][8]. - However, countries like the UK, Japan, South Korea, and Germany maintain a cash and deposit holding ratio above 30%, indicating that the U.S. model may be an exception rather than a trend applicable to China [3][8]. Group 3: Demographic and Economic Influences - An important factor influencing the financial asset choices of Chinese residents is the aging population, which tends to increase the proportion of risk-free assets in their portfolios [4][9]. - The lifecycle investment theory suggests that older individuals prefer more risk-averse investments, leading to a higher allocation in cash and deposits as they age [4][9]. - Low interest rates encourage residents to seek returns through various channels, but whether they will directly invest in stocks or indirectly through funds and insurance remains uncertain [4][9][10]. Group 4: Market Performance and Investment Behavior - International experience indicates a correlation between the proportion of residents holding stock assets and the long-term performance of the stock market [5][10]. - From 2013 to 2024, residents in the U.S., Japan, and Germany have consistently increased their holdings in stocks and funds, while the UK and South Korea have not shown similar trends [5][10]. - The stability of the Chinese stock market and the increase in residents' holdings of stocks and equity financial assets are interrelated issues that need to be addressed for sustainable market growth [5][10].