美最高法院裁决搅局！印度会否“偷摸”买俄油？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential tariff powers has created uncertainty for Indian refiners regarding a trade deal that aimed to reduce tariffs in exchange for halting Russian oil imports [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Supreme Court Ruling - Indian refiners are currently minimizing their procurement of Russian oil as they await clarity from the Indian government on future purchases [5]. - The Supreme Court's decision to overturn the use of emergency powers for imposing tariffs may provide India with more flexibility in its oil import strategy [5]. - U.S. government has urged partner countries to adhere to agreements, including a deal to reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% [5]. Group 2: Changes in Russian Oil Imports - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022, India has become a major buyer of discounted Russian oil, with peak imports reaching 2 million barrels per day [6]. - Current estimates suggest that Indian refiners are expected to import about 1.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, the lowest level since November 2022, with predictions of further declines to 800,000 to 1 million barrels per day in March [6]. - The recent reduction in imports has resulted in millions of barrels of Russian oil being stored on tankers or redirected to Singapore, with discounts on Urals crude expanding to $15 to $20 per barrel below Brent crude [6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts in Oil Procurement - Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. have recently purchased crude oil from the Middle East, indicating preparations for reduced Russian supply [6]. - This shift exposes India, the world's third-largest oil importer, to risks associated with Middle Eastern supply, particularly amid U.S. military buildup in the region raising concerns about potential conflicts with Iran [6]. - If approved by New Delhi, the millions of barrels of Russian oil stored at sea could provide Indian refiners with a quick and cost-effective solution [6].