长江有色：26日镍价下跌 下游采购谨慎回暖压价小单主导成交

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a downward trend due to weak macroeconomic sentiment and a sluggish fundamental reality, leading to a "supply surplus, demand weakness" situation in the nickel market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract (2605) opened at 141,000 CNY/ton, reached a high of 141,870 CNY/ton, a low of 139,500 CNY/ton, and closed at 141,040 CNY/ton, down 480 CNY/ton, or 0.34% [1]. - The average price of 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 130,250 CNY/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [1]. - The overall trading in the spot market was quiet, with traders adjusting prices based on market conditions, and downstream purchasing intentions showing slight recovery but primarily focused on essential small orders [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The current nickel market is characterized by ample supply from Indonesia and stable domestic refined nickel production, with no signs of raw material shortages [2]. - Demand from the main consumption sectors, stainless steel and new energy, is weak, with downstream orders being light and significant price reductions observed [2]. - Visible inventories remain at historically high levels, contributing to the ongoing pressure on prices due to the overall weak supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The downward trend in nickel prices is expected to continue, with a forecast of weak fluctuations in the short term [4]. - Despite some support from Indonesian industrial policies, the core pressure from weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors is difficult to offset [4]. - The market lacks strong drivers to reverse the fundamental situation, leading to a characterization of the price movement as "easy to fall, hard to rise" [4].