Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-26 10:21Core Viewpoint - After the Spring Festival, cobalt prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend due to increased demand from the recovering electric vehicle market and reduced supply in the cobalt market [3][6]. Cobalt Market Supply - The supply of cobalt is expected to decrease as Japan's Sumitomo Corporation announced the closure of its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar due to damage from Tropical Cyclone Gaisang [4][14]. - The Ambatovy project, owned by Sumitomo, produced approximately 28,000 tons of nickel and about 2,500 tons of cobalt in 2024 [4][14]. Cobalt Market Demand - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1% [5][15]. - The domestic power battery installation volume in January was 42.0 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 57.2% but a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [5][15]. - The share of ternary battery installations decreased to 22.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 48.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [5][15]. - Despite a slight increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, the promotion of low-cobalt batteries has led to a decline in demand expectations for cobalt [5][15]. Market Overview and Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the slow growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, along with declining demand expectations for cobalt, combined with reduced supply from the Madagascar cobalt mine and inventory replenishment by downstream customers after the Spring Festival, have led to a temporary increase in cobalt demand [6][16]. - Overall, the combination of demand support and reduced supply is expected to result in a fluctuating upward trend in cobalt prices in the future [6][16]. Related Listed Companies - Relevant listed companies include Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) [7][17].