支撑位放量回升，螺纹钢见底了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures contract has shown a significant rebound near previous support levels, indicating a potential bottoming signal, with a notable increase in trading volume [1] Supply Side: Extremely Cautious Production Pace - As of February 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar from 137 major steel mills was 1.7038 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 12,200 tons (0.72%) but a year-on-year decrease of 265,300 tons (13.47%) [3] - The production level post-Spring Festival remains low, reflecting a persistent lack of willingness among steel mills to resume production due to multiple factors, primarily profit margin pressures [3] - The anticipated crude steel production control policies for 2026 have made steel mills more cautious in their production plans, leading to a new normal of low supply, which provides a buffer for price stability [4] Demand Side: Signs of Recovery Beneath the Surface - The apparent weekly consumption of rebar was 411,600 tons as of February 20, 2026, a decrease of 607,500 tons (59.61%) week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2746 million tons (75.59%) [5] - This consumption figure reflects the continuation of halted construction during the Spring Festival rather than a collapse in demand [5] - The real test for demand will come in the following weeks as workers return post-Lantern Festival and temperatures rise, determining if rebar consumption can quickly recover to normal levels [5] Inventory Side: Passive Accumulation at Absolute Low Levels - As of February 20, 2026, total rebar inventory was 7.1604 million tons, an increase of 1.2922 million tons (22.02%) week-on-week, but a year-on-year decrease of 1.3161 million tons (15.53%) [8] - The significant accumulation of inventory post-Spring Festival is a historical norm due to reduced production and halted sales, yet the current inventory level is relatively low compared to the past three years [8] Market Outlook - The current rebar fundamentals can be summarized as: extremely cautious supply providing price support, demand at a low point but showing signs of potential recovery, and manageable inventory levels that are lower year-on-year [11] - The recent bullish movement in the market reflects a collective expression of macro expectations, but whether this will lead to a sustained trend reversal depends on the realization of macro policies and actual demand recovery [11]