净值波动变大、业绩比较基准修改，银行理财的“安稳日子”结束了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the performance benchmarks of bank wealth management products indicate a significant decline in expected yields, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing returns and increased volatility in the market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Adjustments in Performance Benchmarks - Since the beginning of 2026, nearly 10 financial institutions, including Agricultural Bank Wealth Management and Minsheng Wealth Management, have announced reductions in the performance benchmarks of hundreds of products, with many now capped below 3.2% [2][3]. - For instance, Minsheng Wealth Management's product benchmark was drastically lowered from 4%-6% to 2.6%-3.1%, nearly halving the upper limit [2]. - Additionally, several institutions have shifted their benchmarks to index or market interest rate types, such as changing the benchmark to the People's Bank of China’s 7-day notice deposit rate [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98% in the second half of 2025, down from 2.12% in the first half, indicating a downward trend in returns [4]. - Investors have reported significant volatility in the net values of R2-rated products, with some experiencing fluctuations comparable to R3-rated products, leading to unexpected negative returns [5][6]. - The overall market for bank wealth management has not rebounded as expected, with a reported decrease of 114.2 billion yuan in total scale in January 2026 [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact and Industry Response - Recent regulatory changes have prompted wealth management companies to reassess their performance benchmarks, aligning with new disclosure requirements aimed at stabilizing benchmarks and reducing frequent adjustments [3][6]. - The shift towards index or market interest rate benchmarks is a strategic response to regulatory pressures, aiming to maintain stability in performance disclosures [3]. - Analysts suggest that the industry is focusing on product innovation and long-term funding strategies to navigate the current challenges, including the introduction of more medium to long-term products [11][12]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Public Funds - The gap between bank wealth management and public funds is widening, with public fund assets reaching 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, surpassing bank wealth management assets [9][10]. - The number of new fund accounts has surged, indicating a structural shift in investor preferences towards public funds over traditional bank wealth management products [9][10]. - This trend reflects a changing landscape where investors are increasingly favoring the stability and potential returns offered by public funds amid declining yields in bank wealth management [10].