Project ramp-ups and new projects set to lift Australia’s iron ore output in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Australia is projected to maintain its position as the world's largest iron ore producer, with production expected to reach 993.4 million tonnes (mt) by 2026, driven by ongoing project ramp-ups and new developments [1][3]. Production Overview - In 2024, Australia accounted for 36.8% of global iron ore production, with an output of 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1]. - Key projects contributing to this growth include MRL's Onslow, BHP's South Flank, and Fortescue's Iron Bridge, along with the new Western Range mine, which has a production capacity of 25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) [1]. Challenges and Adjustments - Operational challenges have impacted production, including the ramp-down of BHP's Yandi mine due to resource depletion, reduced output from Roy Hill amid lower iron ore prices, and weather-related disruptions like Cyclone Zelia [2]. - The Koolyanobbing mine was placed on care-and-maintenance due to limited reserves and high operating costs, further constraining output [2]. Future Projections - Australia's iron ore production is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, reaching 993.4 million tonnes, supported by ramp-ups at existing projects and the planned start-up of McPhee Creek and Lamb Creek [3]. - The Koolyanobbing mine is anticipated to resume operations in December 2025 following its sale [3]. Long-term Outlook - Over the forecast period from 2026 to 2035, Australia's iron ore output is expected to trend higher, despite a temporary dip in 2033 due to scheduled mine closures [4]. - New projects such as Mulga Downs, Rhodes Ridge, and others are expected to support supply, while depletion-driven shutdowns at various mines will partially offset this growth [4]. Growth Rate - Overall, Australia's iron ore production is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1%, reaching 1,094.6 million tonnes by 2035 [5].