Vistra's 2026 Guidance Reinforces Its Multi-Year Growth Path

Core Insights - Vistra achieved a record 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $5.91 billion, exceeding guidance by $112 million despite facing $808 million in non-cash hedging losses [1] - The 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is set between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion, indicating approximately 22% growth compared to 2025 results [1] - Long-term power purchase agreements with AWS and Meta are pivotal for Vistra's nuclear portfolio, supporting its growth trajectory [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a strong performance for the full year 2025, with Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reaching $5.91 billion, surpassing the original guidance midpoint [1] - GAAP numbers were impacted by $808 million in non-cash unrealized commodity hedging losses, but operational performance remains robust [1] - Interest expenses rose to $1.18 billion in 2025 from $900 million in 2024, indicating increased financial costs [1] Strategic Developments - Vistra has reduced its share count by approximately 30% since November 2021 through buybacks totaling around $5.9 billion, reflecting a strong capital allocation strategy [1] - The company has hedged nearly 100% of its 2026 generation, which positions it favorably for the upcoming year [1] - The integration of the pending Cogentrix acquisition, which adds roughly 5,500 MW, presents a complexity that investors should monitor [1]