外国央行同步净减持美债折射外汇储备多元化趋势

Core Viewpoint - Foreign central banks are adjusting their allocation logic towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with recent data indicating a shift to net reduction in holdings, reflecting a balance between maintaining liquidity and diversifying risks rather than a fundamental change in asset allocation strategy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Recent Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of the week ending February 20, foreign central banks reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $10.017 billion, contrasting with a previous increase of $14.12 billion [2]. - In December 2025, global investors collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $88.4 billion, bringing total holdings down to $9.27 trillion, breaking a previous trend of net inflows [2]. - The three largest creditor nations—Japan, the UK, and China—simultaneously reduced their holdings, with Japan decreasing by $17.2 billion, the UK by $23 billion, and China by $0.4 billion [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Reduction - The collective reduction in December 2025 is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and falling bond prices, prompting some central banks to manage paper losses or stop-loss needs [3]. - Seasonal factors, such as year-end capital rebalancing, also influenced the decision to liquidate positions, alongside the rising prices of alternative assets like gold [3][4]. - The ongoing increase in U.S. government debt and geopolitical uncertainties are leading to a marginal adjustment in the asset allocation logic of foreign official institutions [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Implications for U.S. Treasury Demand - The external demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to face structural challenges, with strategic reductions by official sectors potentially becoming a long-term trend due to "de-dollarization" and geopolitical shifts [5][6]. - Private sector demand, while supported by high yields, is characterized by high volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, which could lead to sudden outflows [5]. - Major creditor nations are experiencing a structural divergence in their U.S. Treasury holdings, reflecting varying considerations regarding liquidity management and geopolitical risks [5][6].