环球圆桌对话：美“交易式威慑”遭遇三重悖论

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against the government's implementation of global "reciprocal tariffs" has raised concerns about the effectiveness of Washington's "transactional deterrence" strategy in international relations [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court's decision directly undermines the legal foundation of the U.S. tariff policy, indicating that the government has overstepped its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2]. - Following the ruling, Washington quickly initiated a new 10% global import tariff, which was later increased to 15%, and is considering new "national security tariffs" on six industries [2][3]. - The ruling highlights the fragility of the legal legitimacy of U.S. tariff policies, as many economies are not yielding to U.S. pressure and are instead accelerating bilateral and regional trade agreements [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Trade Relations - The "transactional deterrence" approach is facing diminishing returns, as the frequent use of threats has led to a depreciation of its effectiveness, similar to over-issued currency [3]. - Traditional allies of the U.S. are reassessing their dependence on Washington, with European nations and neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico strengthening ties with emerging economies [3][4]. - The credibility of U.S. commitments is eroding due to inconsistent application of tariffs and agreements, which undermines its ability to manage crises effectively [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Global Order - The erosion of the post-World War II international order, characterized by rules and multilateral negotiations, is being replaced by a "might makes right" mentality, forcing smaller nations to navigate between alignment and strategic counterbalancing [4]. - Countries, especially in the Global South, need to develop a multi-layered, systematic response to the normalization of "threat diplomacy" by the U.S. [4][5]. - In the medium to long term, nations should actively participate in reforming global governance systems and reshaping international rules, particularly in emerging fields like AI and outer space [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications of U.S. Tariff Policies - The unilateral high tariff policies of the U.S. are expected to create uncertainty in the development of a high-level open global economy and quality cooperation [8]. - The elasticity of export supply from various countries will significantly influence the effectiveness of tariff policies, potentially leading to trade shifts away from the U.S. [8]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods and industrial products in the U.S. could increase operational costs for domestic businesses, particularly affecting lower-income households [8]. Group 5: Future of U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. government is likely to continue using tariff tools, as changing its approach would undermine the previous year's efforts to leverage tariffs as a deterrent [9][10]. - The Supreme Court ruling clarifies that tariffs are indeed taxes, which has implications for how tariffs are perceived and implemented [10]. - The new 15% tariff policy may benefit countries like Brazil, China, and India, while negatively impacting U.S. allies in Europe, particularly the UK [11].