敦促减少贸易限制，IMF警告美国：政策不确定性可能造成超预期拖累

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticizes the U.S. government's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs, suggesting a need for a different approach to avoid negative economic consequences [1] - The IMF's statement highlights that tariffs have a "negative supply effect" and are a "headwind to growth," predicting a 0.5% increase in the personal consumption expenditure price index and a 0.5% decrease in output levels by early 2026 [1] - The IMF emphasizes that international trade is crucial for economic growth, job creation, and resilience, warning that increased tariffs will distort resource allocation, disrupt global supply chains, and weaken trade benefits, leading to additional costs [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that the U.S. government's fluctuating tariff policies disrupt global supply chains and financial markets, potentially causing unexpected drag on U.S. economic activity, especially if supply chain restructuring is not achievable in the short term [2] - Concerns are raised regarding significant layoffs among federal workers, with a reported 15% reduction in the federal workforce over the past year, which could impact the functions of statistical, regulatory, and tax authorities [2] - The IMF forecasts that stricter border controls and increased deportations will slow job growth and slightly raise inflation, leading to a projected 0.4% reduction in U.S. economic activity by 2027, alongside rising public debt as a percentage of GDP posing risks to both U.S. and global economies [2]