券商晨会精华 | 全球燃机新签订单有望实现双位数同比增速

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating, where the ChiNext index dropped over 1% at one point. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.54 trillion yuan. The computing hardware sector led the gains, with strong performances in PCB, CPO, liquid cooling servers, and computing chip concepts. Conversely, the film and television, insurance, and real estate sectors experienced notable declines. By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.29% [1]. Group 1: Global Engine Orders - Huatai Securities predicts that global new orders for gas turbines are expected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth. Siemens Energy anticipates a 38% increase in new orders to 36 GW for the fiscal year 2026, indicating a potential high-level year-on-year order growth for the calendar year 2026. General Electric's pre-booked agreements of 43 GW until the end of 2025 could lead to a 44% increase in new orders for 2026 if fully converted [2]. Group 2: Cyclical Sector Outlook - CITIC Construction Investment expresses optimism regarding the cyclical sector, highlighting opportunities for heavy asset industries to reverse their current challenges. Factors contributing to this include rising inflation expectations, continuous recovery in PPI, and increasing commodity prices, which benefit the balance sheets of heavy asset companies. Additionally, industries such as chemicals and building materials have undergone capacity clearing, and policies aimed at controlling growth and stabilizing prices are enhancing profitability. The stabilization of real estate in first-tier cities is expected to boost domestic demand and industry chain recovery, with a focus on chemicals, building materials, and electrical equipment sectors [3]. Group 3: Green Energy Transition - Everbright Securities notes that the transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control in China, along with the implementation of the EU carbon tariff, will lead to a revaluation of carbon costs. Assets with low or negative carbon attributes, such as green aluminum, green hydrogen, and zero-carbon parks, are expected to gain a green premium. Non-electric applications in shipping fuel green alcohol, hydrogen storage, and carbon capture green ammonia, as well as hydrogen metallurgy, are likely to benefit from this trend [4].