中金：2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产主线 超配中国股票和黄金 标配大宗商品、美股和美债

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the international monetary order will continue to be the main theme for global assets in 2026, supporting a bull market for Chinese stocks and gold, and favoring Chinese stocks over U.S. stocks [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Review and Insights on Global and Chinese Assets in 2025 - Gold led the global market with a 67% increase in 2025, marking the highest annual gain since 1980. Copper also performed well among non-ferrous metals [2]. - The U.S. dollar depreciated, with a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index, while emerging market stocks rose by 31%, outperforming U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017 [2]. - Chinese stocks ranked high globally, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 50% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 18%, both achieving their largest annual gains in five years [2]. 2. Key Trends in Asset Performance - The weakening dollar historically correlates with strong performance in gold and non-U.S. assets. The AI technology revolution has bolstered both U.S. and Chinese tech sectors, driving up prices of related resources like copper [3]. - The A-share market saw a 28% increase in 2025, primarily due to a decline in risk premiums, with significant contributions from the tech sector [3]. 3. New Paradigms in Chinese Asset Revaluation - The current bull market is fundamentally a revaluation of tech assets, with the price-to-earnings ratio of leading Hong Kong tech stocks narrowing from a 60% discount to U.S. counterparts [4]. - There has been an acceleration of long-term capital entering the A-share market, with insurance holdings in stocks and funds growing to 5.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [4]. 4. Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The "asset scarcity" phenomenon is deepening, with low returns on traditional savings driving capital into the stock market, where the CSI 300 index offers a dividend yield of 2.7% [5]. - Southbound capital inflows through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025, increasing the influence of domestic capital on the Hong Kong market [6]. 5. Consensus on Market Outlook for 2026 - Three major consensus points have emerged: the continuation of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, ongoing bull markets in gold, and the potential underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to Chinese assets [7]. - The underlying logic of these consensus points is tied to the accelerated restructuring of the international monetary order, which is expected to influence capital flows significantly [8]. 6. Investment Strategy for 2026 - The recommended asset allocation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, with standard allocations to commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries, while underweighting Chinese government bonds [17]. - Specific sectors to focus on include AI-related industries, overseas expansion opportunities, cyclical reversals in chemicals and energy, and high-dividend stocks in a low-interest environment [17][18].