华泰期货：棉价冲高回落，郑糖延续反弹

Cotton Market Insights - The closing price of cotton futures (2605 contract) was 15,350 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton or 0.20% from the previous day [2][13] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 16,548 CNY/ton, an increase of 759 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 16,681 CNY/ton, up by 611 CNY/ton [2][13] - As of February 15, national cotton commercial inventory was 5.5037 million tons, down by 285,000 tons or 4.92% from the end of January, and lower than the same period last year by 177,400 tons or 3.12% [2][13] Textile Industry Data - The industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 75,600 tons year-on-year and a 28,200 tons increase month-on-month [2][13] - The disposable cotton inventory for textile enterprises was 1.2178 million tons, a decrease of 68,900 tons year-on-year but an increase of 33,300 tons month-on-month [2][13] - The yarn inventory for textile enterprises was 21.32 days, down by 0.86 days year-on-year and 0.39 days month-on-month [2][13] International Market Analysis - The USDA's latest report forecasts a global cotton production of 25.26 million tons for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, while global consumption is expected to rise by 1.2% to 26.15 million tons [3][15] - The ending stocks for the new season are projected at 15.5 million tons, down by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [3][15] - The domestic textile market is expected to gradually recover as businesses resume operations, with strong consumption anticipated due to expanded spinning capacity [3][15] Price Strategy - The market sentiment is neutral, with expectations for a strong performance in the traditional peak season of March and April, influenced by recent price increases in the international market and changes in tariff policies [5][16] - However, short-term price increases may face pressure from domestic and international price differentials [5][16] Sugar Market Insights - The closing price of sugar futures (2605 contract) was 5,285 CNY/ton, an increase of 37 CNY/ton or 0.71% from the previous day [6][17] - In Guangxi, the spot price for sugar was 5,330 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while in Yunnan, it was 5,170 CNY/ton, also unchanged [6][17] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) forecasts a total sugar production of 32.409 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a net production of 29.292 million tons after accounting for ethanol diversion, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [6][17] Sugar Market Analysis - The sugar market is currently experiencing a surplus, which is expected to continue to suppress sugar prices in the short to medium term [7][18] - Domestic sugar production is anticipated to increase, although sales data is currently lagging behind expectations [7][18] - The market is also watching for potential tightening of import licenses, which could provide some support to prices [7][18]