华源证券：需求端政策加码 稳定楼市目标明确

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates a recovery in the second-hand housing market in key cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen since January, suggesting a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics. The firm believes that the current real estate adjustment in China may have reached a relatively sufficient level in both time and space, with the overall success rate of the real estate sector expected to gradually increase against a backdrop of deep industry clearing and continuous policy support [1]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new housing policy released in Shanghai on February 25 includes significant adjustments: 1) Purchase restrictions have been relaxed, allowing non-local residents to buy homes with a social security or tax record of just one year, and those with five years of residency can purchase one property citywide [1] 2) The maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers using housing provident fund has increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million, with potential increases to 3.24 million for families with multiple children or those purchasing green buildings [1] 3) Property tax exemptions are provided for adult children of local residents when purchasing their family's only home [1]. Group 2: Market Stability Intent - The government has been actively releasing positive signals since early 2026, with notable mentions in the first issue of "Qiushi" magazine regarding the financial asset nature of real estate and the need for comprehensive policy support. The initiation of state-owned enterprise land reserves for affordable housing in specific districts is expected to further enhance market confidence and stimulate transactions [2] 1) The relaxation of purchase restrictions will include groups with insufficient social security records, broadening the pool of potential buyers [2] 2) Increased loan limits and optimized recognition standards will lower purchasing costs, encouraging first-time and upgrading buyers [2] 3) The tax exemption for local adult children will reduce the cost of property exchanges for local families, promoting demand for upgrades [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The Shanghai housing market has shown signs of recovery since the beginning of 2026, with January seeing 22,800 second-hand homes sold, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%. The inventory situation is improving, with a continuous decline in the number of listings over the past nine months. Price stabilization is also evident, with a slight decrease in the leading index indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to December 2025 [3]. The combination of recovering transaction volumes, decreasing listings, and ongoing policy support suggests a promising "small spring" for the Shanghai market [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on quality real estate companies with ample land reserves and reduced impairment provisions, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and others, as well as intermediaries benefiting from transaction volume recovery like Beike-W [3].