国投证券：稀土供需格局重塑 价格中枢或上移

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing a significant supply-demand mismatch, with supply rigidities highlighted by China's dominance in the separation and smelting capacity, while demand is expanding due to increased usage in high-end applications such as electric vehicles and wind power [1][2][3][4]. Supply Dominance - China holds an absolute dominant position in rare earth supply, with an expected 51% share of the global rare earth reserves exceeding 85 million tons by 2025. China's separation capacity is projected to account for nearly 90% of global capacity, with top-tier technology ensuring control over rare earth oxide production [2]. - The short-term overseas supply increase is unlikely to compensate for China's dominance, with core overseas supplier Lynas expected to produce only 8,000 tons of praseodymium-neodymium oxide by 2025 [2]. Policy Tightening - The rare earth industry is experiencing significant and ongoing policy tightening, with mining and smelting separation growth rates expected to drop to 12.5% and 10.43% respectively in 2024. The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" in 2025 will include controls on overseas imported ore smelting quotas [3]. - The consolidation of the industry is progressing, with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth Group controlling 100% of the national mining quotas by 2024, further compressing supply elasticity and supporting price increases [3]. Demand Expansion - Global demand for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to grow at a rate of 8.39% year-on-year by 2026, driven primarily by the electric vehicle sector, which is projected to increase neodymium-iron-boron demand by 10% to 81,312 tons [4]. - Wind power installations are also contributing to demand growth, with a 6% increase in neodymium-iron-boron demand expected, reaching 40,666 tons. Other sectors such as industrial robots and energy-saving elevators are anticipated to see steady demand growth of 8% and 5% respectively [4]. Supply-Demand Mismatch - The supply-demand balance for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to remain tight, with total supply projected at 116,500 tons and total demand at 111,300 tons in 2025, resulting in a supply-demand gap of only 5,229 tons. This gap is expected to widen to -5,393 tons by 2026 [5]. - The combination of domestic quota controls and slow overseas production increases will create rigidities in supply, while demand continues to expand in high-growth sectors, providing strong upward momentum for prices [5]. Investment Focus - Key investment targets in the rare earth sector include China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Northern Rare Earth, Huahong Technology, and Baotou Steel. In the magnetic materials sector, notable companies include Jinchuan Group, Ningbo Yunsheng, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Galaxy Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan [5].