稳定人民币汇率！央行将远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率下调为0

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0% effective March 2, 2026, to support enterprises in managing exchange rate risks and to stabilize the RMB exchange rate [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The PBOC's decision to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is a response to market conditions, aimed at adjusting market supply and demand while stabilizing exchange rate expectations [1][6]. - The reduction in the reserve ratio is expected to encourage enterprises with actual demand to hedge against exchange rate risks at lower costs [1][7]. Group 2: Market Impact - The RMB faced strong appreciation pressure, with the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD both surpassing the 6.84 mark, reaching the highest level since April 2023 [2][7]. - Since the end of December 2025, the RMB has continued its appreciation trend, with the midpoint exchange rate appreciating by over 300 basis points in February alone, and both onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by more than 2% this year [2][7]. Group 3: Economic Context - The strengthening of the RMB is attributed to the stabilization of China-U.S. trade relations since November 2025 and a weaker USD, which has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [8]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will remain strong due to expected continued growth in exports and high market sentiment, with limited chances for a significant rebound in the USD index [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - If the RMB continues to appreciate rapidly, other macro-prudential tools may be employed, such as adjusting the macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing and increasing the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio [4][8].