大摩：港股短线或续受压 三大因素将是逆转关键

Group 1 - A-share investment sentiment has improved post-Lunar New Year due to increased trading volume and expectations surrounding the Two Sessions [1] - Offshore Chinese stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, remain under pressure due to concerns over AI disruption and competitive pressures [1] - Key observations for the future include the improvement of AI capabilities in large platform companies, profitability recovery, and stability in external markets [1] Group 2 - The improvement in A-share investor sentiment is attributed to post-holiday position replenishment, a pause in large-scale selling by the "national team," and optimism regarding the Two Sessions, especially in technology innovation and domestic consumption policies [2] - Mixed signals are present in domestic macro data, with overall Lunar New Year consumption improving but still cautious spending [2] - The average daily number of travelers increased by 5.7%, while average daily per capita consumption decreased by 11.3%, indicating a tendency towards budget-saving behavior [2] - The GDP growth target for this year is expected to be around 5%, despite some provinces lowering their targets, aimed at building confidence for the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Maintaining a relatively high growth target does not necessarily imply stronger stimulus, as the fiscal stance is expected to remain stable with a budget deficit rate of 4% and an expanded deficit rate of 11.6% [2] - The policy mix is likely to focus on supply-side measures, prioritizing technology and infrastructure development, with consumer and real estate measures serving more as a safety net rather than aggressive stimulus [2]