智通财经网·2026-02-27 08:01Core Viewpoint - The pig prices have shown a recovery since the end of December 2025, but have started to decline again in February 2026, indicating a serious oversupply situation in the market [1][2]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In January 2026, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 25.38 yuan/kg, 13.18 yuan/kg, and 23.40 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of 8.44%, 7.50%, and 3.39% [2]. - The supply side saw a normal pace of slaughter from large-scale farms in January, while small and medium-sized farmers slowed down, which supported the prices [2]. - Demand was boosted by pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival, but the slaughtering sector faced significant profit pressure, limiting operational rates and price increases [2]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of December 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.10% from the end of October [3][4]. - The recent improvement in profitability during the peak season has slowed the pace of capacity reduction, but the downward trend in capacity has already begun [3]. Policy Regulation and Price Trends - The central government's policy for 2026 emphasizes comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, with a trend towards more refined policy measures [4]. - As of February 13, 2026, the average loss per self-bred pig was 98.32 yuan, indicating a return to losses for self-bred operations [4]. Company Recommendations - Companies with leading cost structures and high performance realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), are recommended for attention, along with other beneficiaries like Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Dekang Agriculture (02419), Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [5]. January Sales Data of Listed Companies - In January, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope achieved average sales prices of 12.57, 12.75, 12.45, and 12.48 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 10.17%, 9.91%, 6.41%, and 10.64% [6]. - The sales volume for January showed a decline for several companies, with Muyuan Foods selling 701,000 pigs, a slight increase, while Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope, and Zhengbang Technology saw declines of 35.05%, 37.98%, and 9.83%, respectively [6]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter varied, with some companies reporting increases while others reported decreases [6].