中原施永青：料2026年上半年香港楼价可升近15% 全年升幅有望靠近20%

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is expected to see a price increase of nearly 20% for the year, with a significant rise of approximately 15% in the first half of the year, indicating a continued upward trend in the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The founder of the Central Group, Shih Yongqing, estimates that the price increase in the first half of the year will be greater than in the second half, as developers are adopting a more aggressive pricing strategy in a recovering market [1] - The sales pace may slow down due to rapid price increases, suggesting that the market is responding to pricing changes [1] Group 2: Government Policy and Market Stability - The Hong Kong government is expected to continue valuing the real estate sector, with the current upward cycle anticipated to last for several years [1] - The recent fiscal budget did not include measures to support the property market and instead increased stamp duty rates, indicating confidence in the stability of the residential market [1] Group 3: Land Sales and Future Projections - The company anticipates that all nine land parcels in the upcoming land sale plan will be sold, with prices expected to exceed market estimates, and forecasts that land prices will rise faster than property prices due to stable construction costs [1] - The CEO of Central Group, Shih Junrong, predicts a significant rebound in the Hong Kong property market by the second half of 2025, with over 7,200 transactions and a total transaction value of approximately 80 billion HKD expected for the year [1]