中金：低库存叠加政策催化 看好26年钢铁行业旺季行情

Core Viewpoint - The final ruling of South Korea's anti-dumping case on hot-rolled coils from China has reached an agreement with China on a price commitment scheme, replacing high anti-dumping duties, which is expected to enhance the continuity and predictability of export orders [1][2] Industry Status - On February 23, 2026, South Korea announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping case against Chinese hot-rolled coils, agreeing to a price commitment scheme instead of high anti-dumping duties [1] - On February 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published the first batch of steel companies that meet the 2025 version of the normative conditions, including 35 leading normative enterprises and 195 normative enterprises [1][3] Market Dynamics - The price commitment scheme is expected to compress low-price competition, improve the order of export quotations, and restore the "export reservoir" effect, which, combined with expectations of relaxed domestic real estate policies, may support market sentiment and promote industry recovery [2] - Weak winter storage has led to historically low inventory levels, and if demand rebounds in March due to resumption of work and production, it may catalyze a phase of price increases [4] Investment Recommendations - Since Q3 2025, the steel sector's valuation has shown significant recovery, with the overall P/B returning to the historical average of the past decade. However, core asset Hualing Steel remains undervalued, currently trading below book value [5] - The industry is expected to undergo further differentiation in 2026, with a focus on "eliminating the inferior and supporting the superior," favoring leading companies with high-quality cash flow and advantages in high-end and green manufacturing [5] - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) is recommended as a top pick, with Hebei Steel (000709.SZ) also suggested for attention [5]