Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-02-27 10:31Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with significant price increases and a notable divergence in price trends among different metals, driven by supply constraints and structural demand surges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The small metals sector has achieved a cumulative increase of nearly 50% year-to-date, leading all 124 secondary industries [3]. - Key stocks such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten have seen their prices double, with year-to-date increases of 187.41% and 186.32% respectively [3]. - The tungsten price has reached historical highs, with a projected increase of over 217% by 2025 [4]. Group 2: Price Divergence - Tungsten has emerged as the leading metal in this market rally, while magnesium prices have remained low, indicating a significant price divergence among small metals [4][6]. - Tantalum prices have surged by 78.57% over three months, reaching an average of 5000 yuan/kg [5]. - Antimony prices have also increased, with a recent average of 170,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a continuous upward trend since the end of the Spring Festival [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are a major factor supporting the high tungsten prices, with predictions of increasing global supply-demand gaps from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - The demand for key minerals is being driven by concerns over supply chain security, making these resources increasingly valuable [3]. - Despite the overall demand for metals, certain sectors like real estate and home appliances are facing weakening demand, while investments in power grids and energy storage are expected to remain strong [6]. Group 4: Cost Transmission and Corporate Responses - Rising raw material costs have led to several companies issuing price increase notices, indicating a shift in the cost transmission mechanism within the industry [7][8]. - Companies like Tiangong International and Xiangyuan Tungsten have announced price adjustments for their products due to increased production costs [7][8]. - Firms with resource advantages are expected to report strong earnings, while those in processing may face margin compression [8][9].