从全球支付到AI应用：数字平台如何承托中国入境游的万亿级市场

Core Insights - The report from the International Service Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce indicates that by 2025, China's inbound tourism market is expected to reach a record high, with 82.035 million foreign tourists entering and exiting, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.4% [1] - Travel service exports are projected to reach $55.16 billion, a significant increase of 49.1% year-on-year, and 1.6 times that of 2019 [1] - The report highlights that China's inbound tourism revenue currently accounts for less than 0.5% of GDP, compared to over 10% in Thailand and 1% to 3% in many Western countries, suggesting a potential market increase of 1 to 3 trillion RMB if aligned with international standards [1] Group 1: Trade Structure Optimization - Inbound tourism is a crucial channel for China to reduce its service trade deficit and optimize trade structure, with travel service exports reaching a historical high of $55.16 billion in 2025, growing at a rate significantly higher than the overall service export growth of 13.9% [2] - China is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest travel service importer, with imports reaching $253.78 billion, accounting for 15.2% of the global total [2] - The strong growth in travel service exports is anticipated to significantly narrow the service trade deficit, reducing it from $1,646.6 billion in 2024 to $1,160.2 billion in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [2] Group 2: Visa Policy Impact - The visa exemption policy has been a significant factor in the surge of inbound tourism, with 30.08 million foreign visitors entering through visa-free channels in 2025, making up 73.1% of total inbound tourists, a 49.5% increase year-on-year [3] - By the end of 2025, China will have unilaterally exempted visas for 48 countries, expanding the total number of visa-free countries to 77 [3] - The top five source countries for tourists are all visa-exempt nations, with notable growth in visitors from Russia, Italy, and Australia, particularly after the implementation of the visa exemption policy [3] Group 3: Economic and Employment Impact - The tourism industry exhibits a significant consumption multiplier effect, with every 1 RMB of inbound tourism revenue generating 4.3 RMB in related industry income [4] - Inbound tourism is projected to create over 14.3 million jobs directly and indirectly by 2025, with key positions in foreign-guided tours and high-end hotel services offering average monthly salaries exceeding 6,000 RMB [4] - Employment opportunities in border and rural areas are expected to earn 2 to 3 times more than traditional agricultural jobs during peak seasons [4] Group 4: Emerging Destinations - Inbound tourism is shifting from traditional metropolitan areas to lower-tier cities, with four and five-tier cities experiencing an average annual growth rate of 134% [6] - Notable growth is observed in regions like Qiannan, Heihe, and Xiangxi, with Chongqing seeing a 170% increase in inbound visitors due to its unique geography and social media presence [6] - The demand for cultural and ecological tourism is driving international visitors to regions with unique cultural heritage, such as Xi'an and the Chaoshan area, which are becoming increasingly popular [7] Group 5: Digital Platforms - Digital platforms are becoming a key driver for high-quality development in inbound tourism, with significant partnerships established for international payment solutions [9] - By 2025, it is estimated that 20 million tourists will book inbound travel through the Ctrip overseas platform, generating approximately $24 billion in consumption [9] - Over 150,000 Chinese tourism businesses are expected to engage with international tourists through this platform, with many participating for the first time [9] Group 6: Long-term Outlook - The report presents a positive long-term outlook for China's inbound tourism, predicting that by 2035, international tourist consumption could reach approximately 1.5 trillion RMB [10] - Factors contributing to this growth include the expansion of the visa exemption policy, the restoration of international flights, and the promotion of immediate tax refunds for shopping [10] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts that the contribution of China's travel and tourism industry to the economy will exceed 27 trillion RMB by 2035, supporting over 100 million jobs [10]