国泰海通：2026年10年美债利率存在突破4.5%的风险，甚至不排除挑战5%

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the stabilization of the U.S. real estate market may mark the beginning of a new round of inflation, characterized by a shift in inflation expectations accompanied by interest rate cut expectations rather than tightening expectations, resulting in a weaker dollar [1] Group 1 - The current inflation expectations are self-reinforcing, leading to a potential risk of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding 4.5% by 2026, with a possibility of challenging 5% [1]