NCE 平台:比特币步入长期筑底期

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of stabilization after several weeks of downward volatility, with selling pressure from investors nearing exhaustion, allowing for a potential price range consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The liquidity in both spot and futures markets has deteriorated recently, explaining why Bitcoin faced resistance around $67,000 while other risk assets strengthened. Data indicates that Bitcoin has struggled to break the $70,000 resistance level for the past three weeks, reflecting an orderly liquidation of prior long positions [1][4]. - The impact of the four-year halving cycle is being digested by the market, and a reallocation of funds between AI startups and digital assets suggests that the most intense phase of selling is likely over [1][4]. Technical Indicators - Historical weekly RSI for Bitcoin has entered an extremely oversold territory, indicating that aggressive selling pressure is on the verge of subsiding. The market may still test support levels between $62,000 and $65,000, but this volatility could help eliminate speculative excess as long as the global macroeconomic environment does not experience a systemic collapse [2][5]. - If macro liquidity tightens more than expected, the $30,000 level will serve as a critical defensive threshold, while the current sideways movement appears to be building momentum for a potential bull market in 2027 [2][5]. Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors are generally cautiously optimistic about the speed of market recovery. Although inflows into spot ETFs have improved, the repair of market sentiment typically requires a "cooling-off period" of three to six months following significant pullbacks [2][6]. - The likelihood of a V-shaped recovery is low in the current environment, with more emphasis on structural consolidation within a wide range. This market condition, while lacking explosive potential, presents a good opportunity for long-term investors to lower their cost basis and make strategic allocations [6]. Market Outlook - The digital asset market is transitioning from a "winter" to an "early spring," and investors are advised to remain patient while closely monitoring ETF inflow sizes and the impact of global macro policies on risk asset pricing. As selling pressure gradually dissipates, the market's focus will slowly shift upward [3][6]. - Throughout the remainder of 2026, this consolidation phase is expected to continue restoring investor confidence until new positive catalysts emerge. The $60,000 level is highlighted as a key support point for assessing the integrity of the long-term bull market trend [3][6].