万星时代，谁在卖水？——宇航电源产业链的投资分析

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace power supply industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from state-led to market-driven, unlocking a trillion-dollar space economy and presenting unprecedented opportunities and challenges [1] Market Transition: From Billion to Trillion - The domestic aerospace power supply market is entering a rapid growth phase, with an expected market size exceeding 5 billion yuan by 2025, primarily driven by solar cell arrays [2][3] - The "Thousand Ships Constellation" and "National Grid Constellation" projects are projected to create approximately 24.6 billion yuan in satellite power system market by 2030, increasing to 37.8 billion yuan by 2035 [2][3] - The global space power market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, from 3.3 billion USD in 2024 to 7.3 billion USD by 2034 [2][3] Four Engines Driving Industry Growth - The commercial space sector is booming, with commercial launch numbers expected to exceed 54% of total launches in 2025, and commercial satellites accounting for 84% of those launched [3][4] - China has applied for over 200,000 low-orbit satellite resources, with significant production capacity for satellites providing a reliable demand for power systems [3][4] - Strong policy support is evident, with "aerospace power" included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting commercial space as a new productive force [3][4] Technological Competition: Three Generations and Structural Innovation - Current dominant technology includes Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) batteries, known for high efficiency and durability but with high costs [5][6] - The mid-term focus is on P-type HJT batteries, which offer cost reduction and flexibility, serving as a foundation for future technologies [5][6] - Long-term prospects include perovskite tandem batteries, which could achieve theoretical efficiencies of 43% but face challenges in stability and lifespan in space [5][6] Market Structure: Dominance and Emerging Ecosystem - The market is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic, with "Electric Science Blue Sky" holding over 50% market share and being the sole supplier for the Thousand Ships Constellation [7][8] - Key competitors include Shanghai 811 Institute and Shandong 513 Institute, along with emerging commercial space suppliers [7][8] - The supply chain is beginning to show signs of collaboration, with upstream material suppliers and downstream service providers forming a cohesive ecosystem [7][8] Investment Landscape: Seeking Flexibility in Certainty - High certainty sectors include core materials and electronic components, which have high technical barriers and profit margins [9][10] - Opportunities in technological iterations include solid-state batteries and perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to drive the next growth wave [9][10] - New application scenarios such as space data centers and satellite connectivity are continuously opening new market spaces for aerospace power [9][10] Future Decade: From Scale Expansion to Ecosystem Leadership - The industry is expected to focus on capacity building and order release from 2025 to 2027, with new technologies undergoing in-orbit validation [11][12] - From 2028 to 2030, scale effects will lead to significant cost reductions, and new battery technologies will achieve engineering applications [11][12] - By 2031 to 2035, a complete commercial aerospace ecosystem is expected to emerge, with leading companies competing for global market share [11][12]