AAOI's 10x Moment: $456M in 2025, $378M Per Month by Next Year

Core Insights - Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) shares surged 20-28% after a strong Q4 earnings report, beating EPS estimates by 90% due to robust datacenter demand [1] - The company guided Q1 revenue to be between $150 million and $165 million, indicating a sequential growth of approximately 17% at the midpoint [1] - Management indicated that demand will outpace production capacity through mid-2027, suggesting a multi-year constrained supply scenario [1] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached $134.27 million, exceeding the $132.22 million estimate, representing a year-over-year growth of 33.9% [1] - The company reported a loss of $0.01 per share, significantly better than the estimated loss of $0.1084, marking a 90% beat [1] - Datacenter revenue was $74.88 million, up 69.2% year-over-year, now accounting for over half of total quarterly revenue [1] Future Projections - AAOI finished 2025 with total annual revenue of $456 million, with potential monthly revenue reaching $378 million by mid-2027 if demand and production ramp up as expected [1] - This projection implies an annualized run rate exceeding $4.5 billion, approximately ten times the revenue reported for the entire year [1] - Management's guidance reflects confidence in scaling production and maintaining gross margins above 30% while increasing R&D spending, which rose 54.5% year-over-year to $25.8 million in Q4 [1] Market Reaction - The stock's significant price increase reflects market optimism regarding AAOI's growth potential and the shift from incremental growth to a potential category leap [1] - CEO Thompson Lin expressed confidence in the company's momentum entering 2026 and highlighted a $300 million investment for facility expansion in Texas [1] - The stock currently trades above the $50 analyst consensus price target, indicating a valuation premium driven by optimism but also associated risks [1]