瑞银下调美国股票市场评级

Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded the rating of U.S. stocks in a fully invested global equity portfolio to "benchmark" due to concerns over a weakening dollar, high valuations, and increasing risks from Washington's policy instability [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Risks - The primary concern highlighted by UBS is the risk associated with the dollar [1][2]. - UBS forecasts that by the end of the first quarter, the euro will rise to 1 euro = 1.22 USD, indicating a significant shift in currency dynamics [1][2]. - The bank notes that historically, when the trade-weighted dollar index declines by 10%, U.S. equities tend to underperform by approximately 4% on a non-hedged basis [1][2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Due to the weakening dollar and lower valuations attracting capital overseas, foreign markets have significantly outperformed the U.S. this year [1][2]. - The MSCI World Excluding U.S. Index has increased by about 8% within 2026, while the S&P 500 Index has remained nearly flat [1][2].