“中国得利最大”，东南亚挠头…

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against the so-called "equivalent tariffs" has led to the implementation of a 10% global tariff on goods, which may increase to 15% in the future, creating uncertainty for Southeast Asian exporters and complicating their trade strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Southeast Asian Exporters - Southeast Asian exporters are in a state of uncertainty, struggling to adjust their supply chains, pricing strategies, and shipping plans due to the fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. - The ruling has made China one of the "biggest direct beneficiaries," complicating the competitive landscape for Southeast Asian countries [1][2]. - Countries like Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia, which have bilateral trade agreements with the U.S., are facing significant uncertainty regarding their trade arrangements [2]. Group 2: Business Strategies and Adjustments - Many businesses in Indonesia are adopting a strategy of "risk reduction while maintaining exports," with selective early shipments rather than a rush to export [5]. - The Indonesian Employers Association has noted that the current legal environment is unstable, making it difficult for companies to formulate stable business plans [4]. - Companies in Malaysia are also adjusting their strategies, with some choosing to ship products early to avoid inventory buildup, while others are reassessing their contracts and risk exposures [5][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Scenarios - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is expected to remain a dominant theme in the region, with potential scenarios including a return to previous tariff levels or the establishment of a permanent 15% rate [2]. - Vietnam is seen as a potential beneficiary of supply chain shifts, although it has not finalized a trade agreement with the U.S., leaving its tariff situation uncertain [6]. - The Asian Development Bank has indicated that the new tariffs could have macroeconomic impacts on Cambodia, potentially trapping it in a passive position due to global trade policy fluctuations [7].