J&J Stock Up 38% in 6 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) stock has increased by 38.4% over the past six months, supported by a positive earnings outlook and strong fundamentals [1][8] - The stock has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages for over eight months, indicating a sustained uptrend [1] - J&J's Innovative Medicine segment achieved over $60 billion in sales in 2025, despite the loss of exclusivity for its product Stelara [6][8] Group 1: Financial Performance - J&J's stock has outperformed the industry, rising 47.2% in the past year compared to a 10.0% increase in the industry [21] - The company recorded three consecutive quarters of sales exceeding $15 billion in the Innovative Medicine segment [6] - J&J expects to generate around $100 billion in revenues in 2026, with sales growth anticipated in both its segments [31] Group 2: Segment Analysis - The Innovative Medicine unit's sales grew 4.1% on an organic basis in 2025, driven by key drugs like Darzalex, Erleada, and Tremfya [5][7] - The MedTech segment saw a 4.3% organic sales increase in 2025, aided by acquisitions and improvements in various business areas [13] - J&J anticipates better growth in the MedTech business in 2026, driven by new product adoption [14] Group 3: Pipeline and R&D - J&J invested over $32 billion in R&D and M&A in 2025, advancing its pipeline significantly [9][10] - The company gained approval for new products, including Inlexzoh/TAR-200 and Imaavy, which are expected to drive future growth [10] - J&J believes that 10 of its new products have the potential to deliver peak sales of $5 billion [12] Group 4: Challenges and Headwinds - J&J faces challenges from the patent loss of Stelara, which accounted for approximately 18% of the Innovative Medicine unit's sales in 2024 [16] - The company is dealing with over 73,000 lawsuits related to its talc-based products, which could impact its financials [19][20] - Sales in China are affected by the volume-based procurement (VBP) program, which is expected to continue impacting J&J in 2026 [15]