ZACKS·2026-02-27 18:35Core Thesis - Select beer stocks are gaining momentum due to improving fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and strong price momentum, with Heineken, AnheuserBusch InBev, and Carlsberg being key players [1][16] Earnings Growth and Valuation - Earnings per share are growing in the teens while revenue expands at single-digit rates, indicating margin expansion and capital return [3][9] - Mature global beverage companies are trading at mid-teens forward P/E multiples, significantly below the S&P 500's approximately 21x, suggesting potential for re-rating [3] Market Sentiment and Ownership Dynamics - Alcohol stocks have been de-rated due to concerns over GLP-1 drugs, sobriety trends, cannabis substitution, and slowing consumption, leading to a "secular decline" narrative [5] - Current expectations may have been overly pessimistic, and as these companies pivot, incremental buying is having a significant impact on stock prices [6] Earnings Revisions and Momentum - Earnings estimates for Heineken have increased by 5.3% for the current year and 4.6% for next year, indicating growing confidence in durable margin gains [11] - All three stocks are showing constructive technical setups, reflecting institutional accumulation and suggesting that momentum may precede broad earnings upgrades [12] Investment Considerations - The combination of under ownership, improving fundamentals, margin expansion, and reasonable valuations creates a favorable environment for sustained momentum [16] - Heineken, AnheuserBusch InBev, and Carlsberg represent compelling investment opportunities due to their stable global franchises and potential for continued multiple expansion from a low base [17]