存储涨价潮冲击 2026年手机市场承压

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone market is expected to face significant pressure due to rising storage chip prices, leading to increased smartphone prices and a potential decline in consumer demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Counterpoint Research predicts that the smartphone market will see a 6.1% decline in shipments by 2026 compared to 2025, with SoC shipments also expected to drop by 7% [1]. - The average selling price of smartphones globally is projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026, while in China, new smartphone prices may rise by 15% to 25% compared to 2025 [4]. - The price increase is expected to start in March 2026, with domestic brands like OPPO, Xiaomi, and others planning to raise prices by at least 1,000 yuan, with some flagship models seeing increases of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The surge in storage prices is primarily driven by the demand for AI training, which has led to a shortage of memory capacity [2][5]. - The proportion of storage chips in smartphone material costs has risen to 20% to 30%, compared to the usual 10% to 15% [6]. - Major memory manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin orders from data centers, which has resulted in a supply crunch for traditional consumer electronics [6][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Samsung is expected to benefit from the situation, with a projected 7% increase in shipments and a market share rise of 0.9% to 6.6% [8]. - Qualcomm and MediaTek, two leading SoC manufacturers, are anticipated to see significant declines in shipments, with Qualcomm's expected to drop by 9% and MediaTek's by 8% [8]. - The low-end market is particularly affected, with companies like Unisoc projected to experience a 14% decline in shipments [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Transsion Holdings has forecasted a 54.11% decline in net profit for 2025 due to rising supply chain costs [9]. - Apple is also expected to face challenges, with a projected 6% decline in shipments for 2026 as it renegotiates contracts with suppliers [9]. - The ongoing rise in storage prices is squeezing profit margins for mid-range smartphones, making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on costs to consumers [9].