瑞银策略师下调美股评级：美元走弱+估值较高+白宫折腾

Group 1 - UBS has downgraded its outlook for US stocks, citing increased risks from a weakening dollar, high market valuations, and rising uncertainty from Washington's policy turbulence [1] - Andrew Garthwaite, UBS's global equity strategy head, has lowered the rating of US stocks in global equity portfolios to "benchmark," indicating that factors driving US stocks' outperformance are fading [1] - The firm predicts that the euro will rise to 1.22 against the dollar by the end of Q1, highlighting structural and asymmetric downside risks for the dollar [1] Group 2 - UBS notes that corporate buybacks, a key support for US stocks, are losing their edge, with US buyback yields now roughly on par with global peers, diminishing their impact on earnings per share (EPS) growth and capital inflows [2] - The "shareholder return yield" from dividends and buybacks in the US is now about half that of Europe, indicating a decline in the attractiveness of US stocks [2] - UBS estimates that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of US stocks, adjusted for industry, is 35% higher than that of international peers, while the average premium since 2010 has been only about 4% [2] Group 3 - Concerns over high valuations are exacerbated by policy volatility under the Trump administration, with frequent changes in tariffs, credit card interest rate caps, and other regulations impacting the market [2] - Despite these concerns, Garthwaite does not fully turn bearish, suggesting that the US economy and stock market may benefit more than others in the early stages of a potential bubble [2] - UBS expects the pace of AI application in the US to outstrip that of most major regions, supporting earnings growth in key industries [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 7500 points [2]