Core Viewpoint - The company is initiating coverage with an "Accumulate" rating and a target price of 52.20 yuan, based on a 2.00x PEG valuation for 2026. The unique high-return recycled preparation process allows the company to increase the usage ratio of recycled materials in products like GH4169 to 70%, reducing costs by approximately 30% compared to traditional processes. The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.39% in revenue and 42.56% in net profit from 2020 to 2024, with a potential return to high growth starting in 2026 due to the ramp-up of high-margin military and commercial aerospace businesses [1][2]. Company Overview - The company is one of the few in China to achieve industrial application of recycled high-temperature alloys for aerospace engines. Its high-return recycling process significantly lowers costs while enhancing product performance, addressing the challenge of resource recycling in high-temperature alloys [2]. - The company has received certification from key clients such as China Aviation Engine Corporation and Aviation Industry Corporation of China, enabling bulk supply of its products [2]. Market Demand - The aerospace sector is experiencing strong demand due to military aircraft upgrades, the commercialization of domestic large aircraft, and rapid development in commercial aerospace. The gas turbine sector is also benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution, with the company's products certified by multiple gas turbine manufacturers. Additionally, the nuclear power sector is expected to see new growth points from the restart of third-generation nuclear power and demonstration projects for fourth-generation nuclear power [3]. - The company currently holds a market share of approximately 11%-13% in the domestic high-temperature alloy market, indicating significant growth potential given the industry's overall growth and the low penetration rate of recycled materials [3]. Cost Advantages - The company has a notable cost advantage in recycled materials, with a usage ratio of 70%-90% in high-temperature alloy production in the U.S. since the 1970s. In contrast, China's effective application rate for high-temperature alloys is only 10%-15%, with most waste being downgraded. The company's cost for high-temperature alloys is significantly lower than its competitors, with costs of 166,600 yuan/ton compared to 192,800 yuan/ton and 240,400 yuan/ton for its peers [4]. Differentiation from Market Views - The market underestimates the long-term growth potential from the introduction of special recycled material grades and emerging businesses like commercial aerospace. The company is positioned not just as a traditional supplier of high-temperature alloys but also as a provider of high-performance, low-cost domestic alternatives for high-end equipment manufacturing through its core technology [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 93 million yuan, 167 million yuan, and 231 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Comparisons with leading domestic high-temperature alloy companies suggest an average PEG of 1.94 for 2026. Given the company's leadership in recycled high-temperature alloys, a PEG of 2.00 is assigned, with a projected CAGR of 58.12% in net profit for 2026-2027, supporting the target price of 52.20 yuan and an "Accumulate" rating [6].
上大股份(301522)：看好高温合金循环再生龙头长期成长