安东·尼尔曼：老婆跑了、孩子少了，乌克兰的男人们愈发绝望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discrepancies in Ukrainian President Zelensky's statements regarding military casualties and troop numbers during the ongoing conflict, suggesting that his claims are misleading and aimed at maintaining support from Western allies [1][6][19]. Summary by Sections Military Casualties and Troop Numbers - Zelensky claims that the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered 55,000 casualties during the conflict, which contradicts his earlier statements about future troop mobilization [1][5]. - The total number of Ukrainian military personnel mobilized since February 2022 is estimated to be between 1.3 million and 1.4 million, with pre-conflict forces estimated at 250,000 to 300,000 [2][6]. - Current estimates suggest that the total number of Ukrainian armed forces is around 1.6 million to 1.7 million, which is nearly double the number of Russian troops involved in the conflict [2][6]. Discrepancies in Reporting - A platform called UALosses, which is considered reliable, reports that the actual number of Ukrainian casualties, including missing personnel, is approximately 180,000, significantly higher than Zelensky's figure [5][6]. - The article argues that the Ukrainian government may underreport casualties to avoid the financial burden of compensating families of fallen soldiers [6]. Declining Military Morale and Recruitment Issues - There has been a notable increase in desertions and personnel losses within the Ukrainian armed forces, with monthly recruitment numbers falling short of losses [7][12]. - As of early 2026, around 800,000 personnel have exited the military since the conflict began, indicating a severe crisis in troop replenishment and reserve forces [7][12]. Population and Demographic Changes - The article highlights a significant decline in Ukraine's birth rate, with annual births dropping from 364,000 in 2017 to 168,800 in 2025, leading to a demographic crisis [10][11]. - Current estimates suggest that the population of Ukraine may be as low as 20 million, contrary to Zelensky's claim of over 30 million [15][19]. Immigration and Future Projections - The article predicts that Ukraine will see an influx of around 350,000 immigrants by 2026, with plans to accept over 2 million foreign workers by 2030 [18]. - This demographic shift raises concerns about the future identity of Ukraine as a nation, with the potential for it to become a hub for immigrants rather than a predominantly Slavic state [18]. Leadership and Governance - The article criticizes Zelensky's leadership, suggesting that he is more focused on maintaining a favorable image abroad than addressing the dire realities facing Ukraine [19].