本土金价走势脱钩、国际客户陆续退出，土耳其黄金产业待破局

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's gold import quota policy, implemented in 2023, has led to domestic gold prices significantly exceeding international market prices, creating challenges in balancing gold reserve protection and maintaining the industry chain [1]. Group 1: Impact on the Gold Processing Industry - The gold processing workshops in Istanbul have become noticeably quieter, with many workstations and equipment left idle due to a decline in export orders, which have dropped by 59% year-on-year in January [2]. - The Turkish Exporters Assembly indicates that the gold import quota policy has intensified industry pressure, with licensed companies allowed to import only 12 tons of unprocessed gold per month [2]. - The price gap between domestic and international gold has widened to approximately $7,000 per kilogram after the quota implementation, currently stabilizing around $4,000, raising processing costs and weakening export competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Decline in Demand and Export - The demand for Turkish jewelry has decreased, with U.S. imports dropping over 40% year-on-year to approximately $409.8 million in 2025, and European buyers reducing orders due to price volatility and supply uncertainty [3]. - Turkey's share in global jewelry exports has decreased from about 7% in 2023 to approximately 5%, reversing years of rapid expansion [3]. Group 3: Need for Domestic Production Enhancement - Analysts suggest that Turkey should shift from restricting imports to enhancing domestic gold production to alleviate reliance on imports and stabilize the market [4]. - The Turkish Gold Mining Association states that increasing domestic gold production is essential to balance supply and demand, with current annual production at about 28 tons and confirmed underground resources at approximately 6,500 tons [4]. - Investment of $5 billion to $10 billion in mining and refining technologies could significantly boost Turkey's gold production capacity [4]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Economic experts recommend prioritizing domestic gold production to reduce import dependency and leverage existing refining and jewelry processing capabilities to establish Turkey as a regional gold processing and trading hub [5]. - While enhancing domestic production is crucial, it will take time to fully address supply gaps, necessitating a balanced policy approach to ensure both gold reserve security and industry stability [6].