【全球资源回收】玻璃纯碱：节后大幅累库，后续关注需求成色

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is currently experiencing weak demand and inventory accumulation, with prices showing slight adjustments in various regions, while the overall market remains cautious post-holiday [1][4][5]. Supply and Production - As of February 26, 2026, the national float glass daily production is 148,600 tons, with an industry operating rate of 70.61%. The weekly production is 1,038,400 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.23% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1]. - The supply side has not seen significant changes during the holiday, with no new production lines expected to start due to environmental policy constraints [1][6]. Cost and Profitability - The average profit for float glass using natural gas as fuel is -142.26 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 24.29 CNY/ton. In contrast, coal gas and petroleum coke have profits of -30.79 CNY/ton and 43.93 CNY/ton, respectively, with the latter remaining stable [2]. - The overall cost pressures are expected to rise due to the transition to gas as a fuel source, impacting the industry's cost structure [6]. Inventory Levels - As of February 26, 2026, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises is 76.008 million heavy boxes, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.0656 million heavy boxes (37.32%) and a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. The inventory days have increased to 33.8 days, up by 9.4 days from the previous period [2][4]. Demand and Market Conditions - The downstream demand has not yet recovered, with the main consumption areas slowly resuming operations. The Low-e market is particularly quiet, with limited transactions during the holiday period [4]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by "neutral expectations and weak realities," with significant differentiation in the chemical market, leading to a decline in glass and related chemical products [4][5]. Price Trends - Current spot prices for float glass in Hubei and Shahe are at 1,110 CNY/ton and 1,030 CNY/ton, respectively, with futures prices also declining to around 981 CNY/ton and 1,058 CNY/ton, both near yearly lows [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations around the average cost line, with a projected trading range for the main glass contract between 1,000 CNY/ton and 1,100 CNY/ton [6].