2 Reasons Why Stocks Could Crash Under Trump in 2026

Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. equity markets experienced an 18% gain in the S&P 500 during Trump's first year, but the dollar index fell by 8%, diminishing these gains relative to other currencies [2] - Analysts attribute the market's challenges to Trump's trade policy, which aims to enhance U.S. export competitiveness through aggressive tariffs, despite recent Supreme Court rulings declaring these actions unconstitutional [3][4] - The U.S. may need to refund $175 billion in tariff revenue, contributing to a projected deficit of $1.85 trillion this year, which could lead to higher interest rates on government debt [5][6] Group 2: AI Spending Concerns - The top four hyperscalers are projected to invest $700 billion in AI data center equipment, significantly benefiting hardware producers like Nvidia, Micron, and Advanced Micro Devices [7] - There are risks associated with capital expenditures in AI, including depreciation of aging hardware and a market reaction against heavy AI spending, as evidenced by share price declines for major spenders like Amazon and Oracle [8] - OpenAI is expected to incur a loss of $14 billion this year, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI companies and the potential negative market reaction if consumer-facing AI firms fail [9]