春节后乙二醇下游逐步复工 供需结构改善仍待需求验证

Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel industry is gradually resuming operations after the Spring Festival, with ethylene glycol's market performance closely tied to the recovery pace of downstream sectors. The market has experienced significant inventory accumulation due to seasonal factors, leading to downward pressure on spot prices. However, post-holiday recovery in downstream polyester and terminal sectors, along with increased maintenance in ethylene glycol production, suggests a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with optimistic long-term expectations. Nonetheless, the full recovery of terminal weaving, dyeing, and home textile sectors remains uncertain, necessitating further validation of demand rebound sustainability, as the market is currently in a phase of contention between bullish and bearish sentiments [3][12]. Inventory and Price Dynamics - Prior to the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 790,500 tons by February 12, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to the end of 2025. The commissioning of new production facilities in Ningxia and BASF also contributed to concentrated supply increments. The logistics disruptions during the holiday exacerbated inventory pressure, suppressing spot prices, which fell to approximately 3,585 yuan/ton [4][14]. - By February 26, the port inventory further increased to 861,500 tons, up 71,000 tons from February 12, indicating persistent near-term supply pressure despite a slight reduction in actual port arrivals during the holiday [4][14]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustments - Following the holiday, ethylene glycol demand began to recover as downstream sectors gradually resumed operations. By February 27, the polyester industry's operating rate rose to 77.41%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the lowest point during the holiday, indicating a gradual release of essential procurement volumes for ethylene glycol [5][15]. - In March, planned maintenance of several ethylene glycol facilities is expected to alleviate supply pressure, with significant reductions anticipated. This, combined with the recovery in downstream demand, is likely to create a noticeable disparity, improving the supply-demand balance for ethylene glycol [7][17]. Future Outlook - Entering the second quarter, the scale of ethylene glycol maintenance is expected to expand, supported by the peak season for textiles and apparel, which will likely enhance inventory reduction. The static supply-demand balance suggests potential for price rebounds in the ethylene glycol market [7][17]. - However, it is crucial to monitor the recovery of downstream demand, as the return of frontline production staff is still ongoing, and the resumption of weaving, dyeing, and apparel sectors is relatively slower compared to previous years. The sustainability of demand recovery remains to be observed [10][20].