The 2026 Outlook for South America’s Top 5 Oil Producers

Group 1: Natural Gas and Oil Production in Colombia - A significant decline in natural gas reserves is threatening an energy crisis in Colombia, with domestic gas production falling 23% year over year to 693 million cubic feet per day in December 2025, compared to over one billion cubic feet per day a decade ago [1] - Ecopetrol's reserves increased by 2.7% year over year to 1.944 million barrels at the end of 2025, but this was due to enhanced recovery and operational efficiencies rather than new discoveries, highlighting a decade-long lack of exploration success [2][3] - Colombia's crude oil production in December 2025 was 747,171 barrels per day, significantly lower than the 998,740 barrels per day reported a decade earlier, despite proven oil reserves remaining over 2 million barrels for 2024 [3] Group 2: Challenges in Colombia's Oil Industry - The Colombian oil industry has faced rising violence, insecurity, and tax hikes, compounded by the current government's decision to halt new exploration and production contracts, further straining reserves and production [4] - Falling foreign investment in Colombia's hydrocarbon sector is negatively impacting the economy, which is heavily reliant on oil and gas production [4] Group 3: South America's Oil Landscape - Argentina has experienced a shale oil and gas boom, with production from the Vaca Muerta shale reaching 593,488 barrels and 4.6 billion cubic feet per day in December 2025, making it the fourth-largest oil producer in South America [6] - Brazil remains the largest oil producer in Latin America, with production of 3.95 million barrels and 6.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day as of January 2026, although this is below previous highs due to maintenance activities [21][22] - Guyana has emerged as a significant player in the oil market, with production reaching 913,550 barrels per day by the end of December 2025, driven by major discoveries in the Stabroek Block [11][12] Group 4: Future Prospects and Investments - Argentina's energy investment is projected to reach $22 billion in 2026, primarily directed towards the Vaca Muerta, with YPF planning to spend $5.6 billion, a 12% increase from 2025 [9] - Brazil's Petrobras plans to invest $91 billion between 2026 and 2030, focusing on pre-salt petroleum acreage, which is attracting significant interest due to its low breakeven price [26]