Novo's woes in spite of Ozempic's growth

Core Insights - The weight loss industry is increasingly dominated by GLP-1 medicines, with sales estimated at €50-60 billion last year and projected to reach €100 billion annually by the early 2030s [1][2]. Company Performance - Novo Nordisk's sales grew from 111.7 billion Danish krone in 2017 to 309 billion DKK last year, with net profits increasing from over 38 billion DKK to more than 102.4 billion DKK, indicating a tripling of both sales and profits in eight years [3]. - Eli Lilly's revenues rose from $28 billion in 2021 to over $65 billion last year, with net profits increasing from $5.6 billion to $20.6 billion during the same period [15]. Market Dynamics - Novo Nordisk's share price has declined over 60% in the past year due to unprecedented pricing pressure and increased competition from Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, which has gained market share [8][10]. - Novo's recent warning of a potential 13% drop in profits and sales this year was attributed to pricing pressures and increased competition [9]. Product Development - Novo Nordisk's new GLP-1 drug, CagriSema, showed a 23% weight loss over 84 weeks, which is less effective than Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, which achieved a 25.5% weight loss [11][12]. - Novo has received approval for a pill version of Wegovy, which is expected to be more attractive to consumers and cheaper to produce compared to injectable versions [25][26]. Competitive Landscape - The market is seeing an influx of new GLP-1 drugs from various pharmaceutical companies, which may lead to a hierarchy of medicines based on effectiveness and pricing [19][21]. - Generic versions of GLP-1 drugs are anticipated to enter the market soon, particularly in countries where patents have expired, which could further drive down prices [30][32]. Economic Impact - Novo Nordisk accounted for approximately 11% of Danish GDP growth last year, contributing significantly to employment and tax revenues [4][5]. - The rise of GLP-1 drugs is expected to impact various sectors, including food and beverage industries, as users may buy less food due to weight loss [36].